Overall conclusion in this review is that there is scope for significant penetration of renewable energy to 2030 (e.g. up to 45%, compared to 3% today). Higher levels subsequently (i.e. to 2050) would be technically feasible. Equally however, it would be possible to decarbonise electricity generation with very
significant nuclear deployment and have limited renewables; carbon capture and storage may also emerge as a cost-effective technology.
Electricity generation
• A range of promising options exists for delivering decarbonisation of the
power sector by 2030 at reasonable cost. This includes renewables, nuclear
and carbon capture and storage (CCS).
• A portfolio approach to technology support is appropriate.
• Firm commitments on support for offshore wind and marine generation
through the 2020s should be made now.
• These should be implemented through the new electricity market
arrangements.
• If renewable energy targets for 2020 can be met in other ways, a moderation
of offshore wind ambition for 2020 could reduce the costs of decarbonisation.
• Ambition for offshore wind to 2020 should not be increased unless there is
clear evidence of cost reduction.
Heat
• Further funding will be required to support renewable heat in the period
2015-20 and in the 2020s.
• Approaches to renewable heat and energy efficiency (i.e. the Renewable Heat
Incentive and the Green Deal) should be integrated.
• Accreditation of installers is crucial if supply chain bottlenecks are to
be avoided and consumer confidence improved.
Transport
• A cautious approach to the use of biofuels in surface transport is appropriate
until and unless sustainability concerns are resolved.
Renewable energy scenarios
• The Government’s plans for renewable energy deployment to 2020 as set
out in the Renewable Energy Strategy are broadly appropriate.
• Our scenarios for renewable energy penetration in 2030 include a share of
30% (460 TWh) in a central case, rising to a maximum of 45% (680 TWh).
These illustrate the order of magnitude for likely and possible renewable
contributions to economy-wide decarbonisation.
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